As 2026 begins, financial markets appear calm, but beneath the surface dynamics are shifting. Inflation is easing, growth stabilising, and rate cutting cycles are nearing completion. Yet, this year will be defined less by broad macro trends and more by dispersion, balance sheet shifts, and policy nuance.
For investors, this environment demands precision. Success will hinge on understanding key drivers and positioning portfolios accordingly.
In the latest edition of Strategic Thinking Out Loud, Alex Pelteshki, Investment Manager, explores how the wave of rolling recessions – sweeping through sectors from Energy to Software – is reshaping opportunities across credit markets. He discusses why this environment highlights the advantage of a concentrated, index-agnostic active management approach that is focused on precise security selection.
Financial markets enter 2026 on solid footing. Resilient economic conditions, robust corporate earnings growth and sustained enthusiasm for large-scale investment in artificial intelligence (AI) should support risk assets throughout the year. Anticipated US interest rate cuts should provide additional tailwinds.
The vast majority of companies have now reported their second-quarter numbers, and the good news is that things looked pretty solid overall.
Credit markets are flashing a signal that hasn’t appeared in decades: corporate bonds are trading as if default risk has virtually disappeared. This compression in credit spreads – the extra yield investors demand to hold corporate debt over government bonds – has created either an extraordinary opportunity or a dangerous trap.
With credit spreads hovering near generational lows, Alexander Pelteshki, Investment Manager, breaks down the current state of global credit markets in the latest edition of Strategic Thinking Out Loud. He explores the drivers behind the rally and outlines a cautious yet opportunistic approach to managing risk and yield in fixed income portfolios.
As we reach the middle of 2025, we face a set of circumstances that are both fairly unique and strangely familiar. Think ‘bond vigilantes’, conflict in the Middle East, US deficit concerns, widespread higher fiscal spending and a UK Labour Government. Sound familiar?
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy made headlines this week with his message to employees: AI will gradually reduce its need for corporate staff.
This latest article in our income opportunities series delves into the world of equities, explaining why we believe we are in a ‘golden age’ and examining the scale and variety of available dividends. We also discuss the traditional dividend-stronghold sectors and highlight some of the market's emerging equity players and payers.
Drawing on deep expertise, measured judgement and skilful market navigation, we scan the horizon for risks and opportunities, discovering fresh perspectives and insights to shape better investment outcomes.
Bond markets are enduring one of their most uncertain and volatile periods in recent memory. Market consensus views have been formed and abandoned in response to the changing macro and political backdrop, resulting in an environment where high-conviction views about the market outlook are more difficult to find. While uncertainty might not be everyone’s best friend, the volatility it brings supports a strong argument in favor of active duration risk management.
One story has dominated bond markets in the last month, the US trade tariffs. Although they had been widely anticipated, we are not sure anyone had on their bingo card that the Trump administration would announce such aggressive and comprehensive tariffs….and do so using their own giant bingo card! Listen to the latest Thinking Out Loud for the latest thoughts from Colin Finlayson, investment manager, Fixed income.
The bar has been set high for global equity markets going into 2025. Two years of strong returns could lead investors to question: is there any room to move higher? We think so, but it’s not as simple as just buying the market.
Corporate bonds performed well in 2024, but government bond volatility dampened overall fixed income returns. Central Banks fell short of market rate-cut expectations, with resilient economies, especially in the US, and political upheaval fueling turbulence. Will 2025 bring similar challenges?
The macroeconomic outlook suggests moderating growth and controlled inflation. However, uncertainty has risen post-US election, with the new administration's policy agenda still unclear. Proposed trade tariffs may initially boost US inflation but could dampen growth modestly. Global impacts may skew negative, widening divergences between the US and Europe, China, and others.
Bond markets decided against a traditional “quiet summer” and instead gave us two bouts of volatility to book-end the period – the snap French elections and the “flash crash” in August.
Investors increasingly seek to align financial goals with their values. This article explores ethical funds and shows how our investment solutions combine ethical exclusions and stock selection to create responsible, transparent portfolios.
The Olympics – where athletes defy gravity, national pride soars, and corporate sponsors dream of stock market glory. Despite the first modern Olympics being held in Athens in 1896 the man responsible for the rebirth was a Frenchman called “Pierre”.