03 Apr 2026

Fidelity: Global Asset Allocation Insights - March 2026

Our Multi Asset team's views on which asset classes and markets are presenting the greatest opportunities and risks.

Global Asset Allocation Insights - March (PDF)

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What has changed?

  • Sector rotation: More disruptive deployment of AI has led to a sharp sell-off in software stocks and fuelled rotation within US equity and across regions. 
  • Fiscal traction more obvious in German data: PMI rises above 50, strong new orders and IFO manufacturing improving.
  • US earnings broadening beyond tech/Magnificent 7. However, in EM Asia just 3 companies linked to AI accounted for 20% of Q4 earnings growth.

What has stayed the same?

  • Macro fundamentals intact: Optimistic global growth outlook due to US reflationary expectations and resilience elsewhere. Policy support and easier financial conditions continue to act as a tailwind to growth.
  • Outlook remains positive for EM assets broadly: Structural reform stories remain intact in select markets.
  • Inflation is normalising but remains uneven across regions.

What are we watching?

  • Developments in JGB markets have the potential to spillover into global bond and FX markets.
  • The evolution of US fiscal policy is key, while the Fed’s reaction function is under increasing political scrutiny.
  • The resilience of AI-linked investment and the degree to which AI disruption spills into other sectors will have a significant impact on sentiment.

Source: Fidelity International, February 2026. Views reflect a typical time horizon of 12–18 months and provide a broad starting point for asset allocation decisions. However, they do not reflect current positions for investment strategies, which will be implemented according to specific objectives and parameters.

Cycle gauges

Source: Fidelity International, February 2026. 

 

TAA views summary

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Best ideas for investment outcomes

Growth

  • EM equities, particularly Korea, South Africa, and Greece, and selectively Brazil, supported by structural reform, earnings momentum, and attractive valuations.
  • Mid-cap equities, particularly those in the US, Japan, and Germany, offer growth but are less impacted by trade uncertainty. 
  • Thematic equities related to the grid upgrade benefit from idiosyncratic return drivers as the US and EU look to accommodate greater demand and more renewable energy.

Income

  • Emerging market bonds in certain markets continue to look attractive given elevated yields and should also benefit from a weaker dollar over the medium term. 
  • Quality income equities provide relative defensiveness and stability, particularly in an environment where growth is resilient but return dispersion is increasing. Dividend growth and strong balance sheets remain key filters.

Capital preservation

  • Gold remains an effective diversifier in an environment of geopolitical fragmentation, fiscal expansion, and unstable bond-equity correlations. While performance has been strong, its role as a structural hedge remains intact.
  • We remain positive on selected real assets, particularly transition materials such as copper, supported by structural demand from electrification, reshoring, and AI demand.

Uncorrelated returns

  • Absolute return strategies, driven by active investment decisions and incorporating idiosyncratic sources of risk – particularly those with a focus on tail risk mitigation.

Source: Fidelity International, February 2026. Views reflect a typical time horizon of 12–18 months and provide a broad starting point for asset allocation decisions. However, they do not reflect current positions for investment strategies, which will be implemented according to specific objectives and parameters.

 

Key views

  • Maintain positive view of Japanese equities, especially mid-caps due to strong corporate earnings growth, higher domestic exposure, and ongoing corporate reforms. There could be some political volatility, though.
  • US earnings continue to surprise positively, with some signs of broadening out. The AI-led capex cycle continues to support earnings, but elevated valuations and narrow market leadership limit the scope for further multiple expansion. We prefer to express exposure through structural themes such as grid upgrades and electrification rather than broad US equity exposure.
  • Continue to be overweight select EM markets. Our top picks include Korea, South Africa, and Brazil, with attractive re-rating stories due to stimulus, governance reforms, and sector-specific tailwinds.

Japan earnings continue to see upward revisions, supported by stronger global capex cycle and geopolitical tailwinds. 

 

 

Source: Fidelity International, February 2026. Views reflect a typical time horizon of 12–18 months and provide a broad starting point for asset allocation decisions. However, they do not reflect current positions for investment strategies, which will be implemented according to specific objectives and parameters. Regional equity views use universes defined by MSCI indices. Chart source: Fidelity International, LSEG Workspace, February 2026.


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