This year has been characterized by policy uncertainty and fears about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation. While many expected the consumer would crack amid weaker sentiment, it hasn’t happened yet. Retail sales remain resilient, supported by a job market that remains good enough to support spending.
After years of outperformance, the U.S. underperformed other regions during the first quarter. While the debate over whether U.S. exceptionalism can persist continues, the U.S. has resumed its leadership since mid-April - led by the technology sector.
By no measure are we seeing a booming job market, but we are also not seeing a deteriorating one. In fact, current labor metrics lead us to conclude that the job market remains “good enough” to support our economic growth expectations for the year.