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AI monetisation the next phase

The conflict in the Middle East is lasting longer than initially hoped. Our base case is for a messy resolution. Tensions are likely to persist for some time, with supply chains disrupted and energy carrying a geopolitical premium.

Our Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) provide return, volatility and correlation forecasts for various asset classes, typically over a strategic ten-year investment horizon. They are calculated using a proprietary model which employs quantitative econometric analysis and incorporates a diverse range of inputs, including bottom-up and top-down insights from across our global investment platform. This provides a robust foundation for our strategic asset allocation processes, which play a key role in investment solution design and portfolio construction.

Gold has come back into focus as investors are questioning whether bonds can cushion equity drawdowns to the same degree as they have in the past. In this paper, we examine whether and how gold can contribute to portfolio resilience alongside traditional assets, and under what conditions that case strengthens or weakens.

A more uncertain and fragmented macro backdrop is changing the way investors think about resilience, diversification and market access., Here, our macro and ETF team examine the key forces shaping markets, including geoeconomic fragmentation, the impact of AI, widening return dispersion, and outline how investors can use ETFs selectively within asset allocations.