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We maintain a constructive outlook for equities, with a broadening of opportunities for selective investment, backed by disciplined diversification.

This week we focus on the diverging chances of a rate cut in December from the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The Chanceller’s job of balancing UK finances hasn’t been helped by gilts. Since the election in July 2024, borrowing costs have been higher than the government would like. But one question still gets too little scrutiny: to what degree is the BoE’s QT programme responsible?

Chancellor Rachel Reeves achieved her budgetary goals: – the OBR is happy, markets are calm, and Labour backbenchers are content. But is that good enough?

The region has exited post-Covid stagflation, with inflation falling and interest rates easing, so economic performance has turned round. America, by contrast, faces stagflation

We cannot ignore the dominant themes impacting markets across the world, but a resilient and supported European marketplace is well placed to prosper in these challenging times

We don’t pretend to have all the answers on China and the US, and we reserve the right to change our minds – especially as Donald Trump changes his. Amid such market volatility we are not making bold macro calls, instead our focus is on thoughtful, quality-led stock selection.

Fundamental backdrop remains solid – many companies are performing well and first quarter earnings were healthy. Shareholder interests remain to the fore with buybacks tripled year-on-year in April. Merger and acquisition activity has been widespread.