The conflict in the Middle East is lasting longer than initially hoped. Our base case is for a messy resolution. Tensions are likely to persist for some time, with supply chains disrupted and energy carrying a geopolitical premium.
Our Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) provide return, volatility and correlation forecasts for various asset classes, typically over a strategic ten-year investment horizon. They are calculated using a proprietary model which employs quantitative econometric analysis and incorporates a diverse range of inputs, including bottom-up and top-down insights from across our global investment platform. This provides a robust foundation for our strategic asset allocation processes, which play a key role in investment solution design and portfolio construction.