Fidelity: Digital assets monthly market digest: June 2026

The emergence of digital assets continues to drive significant developments in finance and technology. Here, we provide key updates and resources to keep you informed about the latest developments in this rapidly evolving space.

Market update

• In May, digital assets traded against a still-fragile geopolitical backdrop, as US–Iran ceasefire discussions remained unresolved and continued to influence broader risk sentiment. Bitcoin broke above $80,000 for the first time since February before returning to the $73,000 range. Bitcoin ended the month at $73,637, representing a 3.5% month-over-month loss, while total crypto market capitalisation stood at $2.6tn.
• US spot Bitcoin ETF momentum reversed in May, with flows turning negative after the positive net inflow trend seen over the past two months. The products recorded a ten-session net outflow streak during the month, bringing overall May flows to a net outflow of $2.4bn and suggesting softer investor demand amid ongoing uncertainty around the US–Iran conflict. Spot Ethereum ETFs in the US also lost the constructive momentum observed in April, recording net outflows for 14 consecutive trading days and ending May with a net outflow of $541m.
• In the US, digital asset market-structure legislation continued to progress, with the Senate Banking Committee advancing the CLARITY Act on 14 May. Further progression now requires approvals from the full Senate and the House before presidential signature. In Asia, South Korea continued to bring digital asset activity further into the regulated financial system, passing amendments to the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act to require registration for businesses handling cross-border virtual asset transfers, while confirming that the delayed 22% crypto gains tax is set to take effect in January 2027. Hong Kong has also finalised crypto regulatory rules that enforce strict capital requirements and know-your-client protocols for companies providing advice or market analysis on virtual asset trading.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
Source:, Bloomberg, DefiLlama and CoinGecko, 31 May 2026.

Chart room
Bitcoin: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
Source: Glassnode, 20 May 2026.

Bitcoin’s current market set-up appears more balanced, with sentiment sitting closer to neutral after the drawdown since late October 2025. To better gauge current market conditions, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) could be a useful proxy for aggregate holder profitability across the Bitcoin network. A positive NUPL reading indicates that holders are, in aggregate, sitting on unrealized profits, while a negative reading suggests the market is broadly underwater. The indicator can also be interpreted through five broad sentiment zones, ranging from Capitulation at the lower end to Euphoria at the upper end.

Bitcoin’s NUPL has recently bounced back after retracing meaningfully from earlier cycle highs in late 2025, suggesting that market sentiment has potentially recovered from the local lows in early 2026. Despite Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown from its all-time high, NUPL remained above zero and only briefly reached the Fear region before recovering toward the Optimism region, pointing to compressed but still positive holder profitability rather than a full capitulation phase.

Another key structural takeaway is that Bitcoin’s cycle extremes appear to be moderating, with Bitcoin’s NUPL moving at a tighter range across successive cycles. This pattern of lower highs and higher lows is consistent with the trend of decreasing volatility and a maturing market structure, where larger market capitalisation, deeper liquidity, and broader institutional participation may be helping to dampen both speculative excess and downside stress.

Overall, the chart points to a meaningful sentiment reset rather than a full-cycle washout. For positioning, this argues for a more neutral interpretation: a renewed move higher in NUPL would suggest confidence and momentum are rebuilding, while a reversal move toward zero would indicate that the correction is becoming more structurally challenging across the holder base.

Cryptolingo: What is NUPL?

• NUPL stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. It measures the difference between Bitcoin holders’ unrealized gains and unrealized losses relative to Bitcoin’s total market value.
• A positive NUPL indicates that the market, in aggregate, is holding unrealized profits, while a negative NUPL suggests that holders are broadly underwater.
• Investors use NUPL as an on-chain sentiment indicator to assess whether the market is closer to euphoria, anxiety, fear, or capitulation.

12-month rolling returns

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
Source: Bloomberg, as of 31 May 2026. BTC (BTC Index), ETH (ETH Index). % changes shown relate to calendar days. Spot Price and index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Investment comparisons are for illustrative purposes only.

Important information

Digital assets are speculative and highly volatile, can become illiquid at any time, and are for investors with a high-risk tolerance. Investors in digital assets could lose the entire value of their investment.

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