13 Jul 2026
The typical company coming to market is no longer a young, fast-growing business in its early stages, but an established company that has already done much of its scaling while remaining private.
2026 is set to be a record-breaking year for initial public offerings (IPOs), following SpaceX’s launch in early June, and with both Anthropic and OpenAI set to follow in the coming months. While we don’t expect these IPOs to challenge US stock markets in the near term, we do think they highlight the importance, these days, of investing in private markets given that so much value now accumulates there.
The prospect of very large companies going public on the US stock market has raised investor concerns about whether there is sufficient demand for this additional supply of new shares, or whether these IPOs will ‘crowd out’ interest in other stocks. However, there are three reasons why we don’t expect the behaviour of US stocks to be negatively impacted over the remainder of 2026.
First, despite a combined valuation of more than USD 4,000 billion, the inclusion of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic in major equity market indices will be a gradual process. Most major equity market indices are weighted by the value of a company’s shares that are available for trading by the public. In other words, the free float, not the total market capitalisation. SpaceX, for example, only floated around 4% of its shares in its June debut. See Exhibit 1 for an illustration of the potential weight of the mega-cap debutants in the S&P 500.
%
Source: LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The calculations take SpaceX’s valuation as of 19 June 2026, and base OpenAI and Anthropic valuations from their most recent private market financing rounds. Data as of 22 June 2026.
While the free float share of this year’s major IPOs will rise over time, there are rules in place that limit how quickly this can happen. Before a company goes public, ownership is typically split across the company’s founders, employees and early-stage investors. To avoid a flood of supply immediately after a company lists, these “owners” are often not allowed to sell any of their stakes until 90 to 180 days after IPO, known as a lock-up period. Looking at the 10 largest IPOs between 2010 and 2025, the average free float on day one was around 45%, which then rose to around 80% six months later, according to data from J.P. Morgan Research.
It’s also worth remembering that newly listed companies don’t automatically get included in all benchmarks from day one. Some index providers, such as FTSE, MSCI and Nasdaq, have created “fast-entry” rules that will now see mega-cap companies joining major benchmarks after just a handful of trading days. S&P Global, however, will continue to require companies to have traded for 12 months before they can be considered eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500.
The second thing to bear in mind is the incentives created by the “circular financed” nature of companies in the tech ecosystem. The complex nature of financing agreements that span the artificial intelligence (AI) landscape has created a huge number of interdependencies, with many of the largest companies taking stakes in other players. The incentives for all companies in the tech ecosystem to see these IPOs progress smoothly are clear.
And finally, we must also recognise that the big question about technology stock valuations is whether the tech companies will generate a return on their investment. As we discuss in our 2026 Mid-Year Investment Outlook, the answer depends on whether companies outside of tech are managing to improve their productivity and profitability. However, while quarterly reporting requirements will result in far greater transparency around the prospects for future profitability, this question is still likely to remain unanswered for some time. We already know that this year’s market debutants all have grand ambitions for their role in an AI-driven future, but it’s unlikely that early earnings releases will do much to sway investors’ belief about how these companies will evolve over the coming decade in either direction.
While the immediate impact on the US stock market is not expected to be significant, there is a lesson to be learned from these IPOs: the need for exposure to private markets in a modern portfolio.
SpaceX was founded in 2002 and therefore remained a private company for 24 years before coming to market at a valuation of USD 1,770 billion. Its value has since risen to over USD 2,000 billion, briefly surpassing the market capitalisation of Amazon.
The contrast with many of today's largest public companies is striking. Amazon listed in 1997 at the age of three with annual revenues of approximately USD 0.3 billion and a valuation of less than USD 1 billion in today's dollars. Google went public after six years with revenues of almost USD 4.8 billion and a valuation of roughly USD 40 billion. Meta listed after eight years with revenues of USD 5.4 billion and a valuation of around USD 151 billion. SpaceX listed after 24 years with revenues of USD 18 billion and a valuation of USD 1,770 billion. This was more than 40 times larger than Google's IPO, nearly 12 times larger than Meta's, and almost 2,000 times larger than Amazon's (see Exhibit 2).
Source: Data compiled from publicly available sources, including company disclosures, financial databases and media reports. J.P Morgan Asset Management calculations. Valuation and revenue at IPO are approximations and are shown in today’s US dollars in billions (inflation-adjusted using US CPI-U through May 2026, the latest available). IPO valuation as a percentage of the S&P 500 is calculated using nominal values, which is IPO valuation at the time of IPO divided by the S&P 500 market capitalisation in the IPO year. Data as of 23 June 2026.
While SpaceX represents an extreme example, the trend extends well beyond one company. In the technology boom of the late 1990s, the median technology company came to market at less than six years old. That figure has since doubled to 12 years. Companies are not only staying private for longer, but they are also arriving at public markets at a fundamentally different stage of maturity (see Exhibit 3).
Years
Source: Jay Ritter Statistics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The 2020 onwards period ends in 2025. Data as of 23 June 2026.
This greater maturity can be seen clearly in annual revenues (see Exhibit 4). Today, the median technology company generates almost three times the annual revenue at IPO compared to a typical company that listed in the 1990s, when median revenues remained below USD 50 million in today’s money. The typical company coming to market is no longer a young, fast-growing business in its early stages, but an established company that has already done much of its scaling while remaining private.
Millions, 2024 US dollars
Source: Jay Ritter Statistics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The 2020 onwards period ends in 2025. Data as of 23 June 2026.
The implication is clear. Companies are staying private much longer and enjoying significant growth before they become available to investors that focus solely on public markets.
Again, the trend extends beyond SpaceX. The expansion of private capital over the past two decades has fundamentally changed the financing options available for ambitious companies. Take Anthropic as an example. In May 2026 it raised USD 65 billion in a late-stage “Series H” financing round, valuing the company at USD 965 billion. Companies can now raise the capital they need to scale without ever accessing public markets. As a result, a growing share of the most dynamic value creation in the economy is taking place in private markets, before public investors can participate.
The changing composition of markets reflects this trend to stay private for longer, with a 2023 report from Bain & Company citing that 86% of companies with revenues above USD 100 million in the US were still private. Public equity markets, for all their depth and liquidity, now have almost 30% fewer companies than they did in the late 1990s. The companies that may well define the next decade of economic growth may follow SpaceX's path – scaling to extraordinary size in private markets before, or instead of, going public.
The lesson is clear: accessing the full breadth of economic growth today, and participating in value creation from its earliest stages, increasingly requires exposure to both public and private markets.
Disclosures
The Market Insights programme provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the programme explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions. For the purposes of MiFID II, the JPM Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes are marketing communications and are not in scope for any MiFID II / MiFIR requirements specifically related to investment research. Furthermore, the J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programmes, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not a reliable indicator of current and future results. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at am.jpmorgan.com/global/privacy. This communication is issued by the following entities: In the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission; in Latin America, for intended recipients’ use only, by local J.P. Morgan entities, as the case may be.; in Canada, for institutional clients’ use only, by JPMorgan Asset Management (Canada) Inc., which is a registered Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer in all Canadian provinces and territories except the Yukon, an Investment Fund Manager in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador, and a derivatives adviser in Ontario and Quebec. In the United Kingdom, by JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in other European jurisdictions, by JPMorgan Asset Management (Europe) S.à r.l. In Asia Pacific (“APAC”), by the following issuing entities and in the respective jurisdictions in which they are primarily regulated: JPMorgan Asset Management (Asia Pacific) Limited, or JPMorgan Funds (Asia) Limited, or JPMorgan Asset Management Real Assets (Asia) Limited, each of which is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong; JPMorgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (Co. Reg. No. 197601586K), this advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; JPMorgan Asset Management (Taiwan) Limited; JPMorgan Asset Management (Japan) Limited, which is a member of the Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association, Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association and the Japan Securities Dealers Association and is regulated by the Financial Services Agency (registration number “Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 330”); in Australia, to wholesale clients only as defined in section 761A and 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Commonwealth), by JPMorgan Asset Management (Australia) Limited (ABN 55143832080) (AFSL 376919). For all other markets in APAC, to intended recipients only. For U.S. only: If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.
Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Image Source: Shutterstock