With markets reeling from the effects of coronavirus, Schroders’ Group CIO highlights what investors should focus on.
Coronavirus is the latest threat to market harmony that once again poses a timeless question: how should investors act in a crisis?
The impact of the Coronavirus together with the sudden sharp fall in the oil price has raised serious concerns in financial markets that a significant economic downturn has now started. For markets, the critical question will be at what stage investors feel the situation is being brought under control. In the case of the Coronavirus, this will be primarily from a medical perspective, but from an economic perspective it will be when the consequences of both the virus and fall in the price of oil can be clarified. We will address these issues in this note.
Whilst the headline news on markets is clearly negative, for longer-term investors looking for a potential entry point, the key to markets may be less pessimistic news, as the delta of change typically drives market direction. This won’t be related to deaths, which are a lagging indicator, but to when new cases peak. The best estimate is that the spike is still at least a couple of weeks away. However, both in China and Hong Kong, there is reasonable evidence to suggest that containment measures are working and that the situation has an element of control.
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