A recession is defined as a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. Recessions tend to occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. A fall of 0.1% was originally reported for Q2 which would have represented a drop in two successive quarters, but the figures were recently revised up so for now, we’ve narrowly avoided going into an official recession by the skin of our teeth, but it does seem like only a matter of time…
Talk about energy prices is relentless, as are the price hikes that consumers in the UK are facing this winter. What does the landscape look like, how will the latest announcements impact the consumer and how will this affect global markets and investments going forward?
Home ownership is more than a big deal in the UK and with 20 years and 36 series of Location, Location, Location under our belts, our fascination with the housing market isn’t showing any signs of abating. Buying a property is often the biggest investment that most people ever make, and the health of the market and direction of future returns is a major factor in people’s lives. A huge 63% of households in England (14.6 million) were homeowners in 2020.
It’s not easy navigating the world of investments and as an investor, volatility and risk can often blur into one. Stock market volatility is a normal aspect of investing, but at times it can become heightened, generally due to uncertainty, which can be influenced by many factors such as interest rate changes, inflation rates, industry changes and national and global events.
Talk of inflation is everywhere, it’s the number one topic driving news, markets, and investment decisions. The latest UK inflation rate is now a staggering 9%, the most elevated of all the G7 (Group of 7) countries and a 40-year high for the UK and if that’s not enough to bring you out in a cold sweat, there’s an expectation of it reaching the dizzying heights of 10% in the coming months.
Visiting London in Spring saw the city, like nature, re-opening from winter torpor as tourism and economic activity picked up post the Omicron induced slowdown during the winter months. Office occupancy has increased as workers have returned and with Covid-19 testing requirements eased, tourists have once again begun to flock back to see London’s iconic sights.
The FCA believes that financial services don’t always work effectively for clients. Consumer duty was first proposed in May 2021 with the intention of setting higher expectations for the standard of care that firms provide consumers. A new consumer duty is set to be introduced by April 2023, with the underlying ethos being a shift in the culture and mindset of advice firms.
The past decade has been a remarkable and benign period for holders of financial assets, with markets led by growth stocks, especially large cap US technology names. In the decade ending 31st December 2021, total returns on US equities averaged 13.7% p.a. whilst the Nasdaq delivered a remarkable 21.4% p.a. Global equity markets delivered over 9% in US$ terms over the decade. Looking at bond markets, US Treasuries delivered positive returns of 3.0% p.a., a major factor behind traditional 60-40 portfolios performing consistently well.
Inflation is a stealth tax that could be likened to a pub fight - you’re enjoying a pint and suddenly someone hits you over the head with a chair – it’s completely unwelcome, unexpected and you don’t know it’s happening until it strikes. When it comes to inflation, central banks tend to target 2% but after the roller coaster ride of the last few years, inflation has taken hold and its grip is only getting stronger.
It’s not easy reconciling personal ethics with the lifestyle and purchasing choices that we make in our daily lives. The burning question is: how do we balance personal ethics against the natural desire to look after our own financial wellbeing? And is it possible to find a fulfilling middle ground?
It has been just over a week since the last update on the invasion and it is clear that the Russia/Ukraine situation has worsened, and that Europe faces a crisis that it has not faced for several decades. The humanitarian problems have significantly increased with nearly two million people exiting the Ukraine, mostly to those countries bordering the country such as Poland, where over half have so far fled.
Western intelligence has for some time suggested that Russia was primed for a full scale attack on Ukraine and as of today (24.2.22) this now looks to have played out. As is the case with most politically motivated events, there are many possible scenarios and outcomes to consider.
In early February I resumed travelling to the UK to meet fund managers and was surprised how quiet Dublin Airport was. On the morning of the 1st February, after 11am, there were only 14 Aer Lingus flights for the rest of the day, seven of these were to North America and three to the holiday destination of the Canaries. With less flights operating, getting in and out of Heathrow was much quicker, and the typical descent to the airport involved tracking the River Thames westward with, on this occasion outstanding views of the City of London Financial District with the Shard Hotel which opened in 2013 - the glass clad pyramidal tower has 72 bedrooms and an open-air observation deck on the 72nd floor with a height of 310m. Just behind it is the Fenchurch Building which opened in 2015, known as the ‘Walkie-Talkie’ as it resembles a two-way radio handset.
During the market discussion on the evening after the Fed Chair’s Senate confirmation hearing, Jay Powell described high inflation as a severe threat to the economy and stated that accommodative policies ‘were not needed or wanted’. He also emphasised the need for a long expansion and price stability to deliver full employment and increase the labour participation rate. The Fed have clearly significantly pivoted on interest rates from their thinking in late summer 2021. That week saw Goldman Sachs move to predict four rate hikes in 2022, a stance quickly followed by JP Morgan investment bank. Bond markets in the short term were pleased with the Fed’s determination to not allow runaway inflation and the 10 Year Treasury yield fell to 1.74% having touched around 1.80% earlier in the week. This rally in US Treasuries occurred even though there was an expectation of a 7% inflation number later in the week which proved to be accurate.
