There are 7 item(s) tagged with the keyword "Macro".
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In the latest Strategic Thinking video, Colin Finlayson, co-manager of the Aegon Strategic Bond strategies reviews what was a very challenging month for global bond markets, but why he believes the peak of the interest rate cycle and falling inflation make the outlook even more attractive. He also gives an update on how we are allocating against this backdrop and discusses why flexibility will be key.
Global House View
For years, investors have faced the reality of lending to corporates at ever falling yields. Now, the high yield market is living up to its name. As rates have shifted higher, yields on high yield bonds continue to increase, even in the higher-quality part of the market.
Aegon AM’s Head of Macro Strategy Frank Rybinski (CFA), shares his insights on what he expects the Fed to do next and the monetary outlook for the remainder of 2023. Frank also discusses how he feels investors should position themselves for the environment ahead.
Government bond markets have experienced material volatility year to date, with yields rising to reflect changes in expectation for policy rates globally. Central banks are raising interest rates in response to the continued high levels of inflation being experienced in many countries. At the time of writing the bond markets are already discounting increases in rates to levels not seen since before the financial crisis of 2008. In the UK in particular, bank rate is already at 1%. In the UK, the market is implying through the yield curve that bank rate will peak at around 2.25%, in the US around 3% and in Europe 1.5%. The implied curves are shown below.
Many market observers in 2019 believe they have witnessed cyclical warning signs which start the countdown to the next recession, we believe a recession is not a foregone conclusion.
Displaying: 1 - 7 of 7