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Global CIO Andrew McCaffery and senior members of our team review current market dynamics and provide an insight into the implications of recent macro and policy developments. They outline how this evolving backdrop is informing our views across asset classes as we head into the final quarter of 2023.

With US labour markets still strong, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its “higher for longer” messaging. Global Head of Macro & Strategic Asset Allocation Salman Ahmed analyses the future direction for inflation and growth and believes the US economy could be in for a shock next year when the impact of higher rates finally start to bite.

How orderly will the global net zero transition ultimately turn out to be? Our Global Macro & Strategic Asset Allocation Team assess the latest progress we are seeing and outline why policy shifts - catalysed by the energy crisis - have the potential to speed up progress towards net zero goals.

Banking sector problems have crossed the Atlantic with UBS agreeing to buy struggling Credit Suisse. While recent events are set to drive further market volatility, we outline why the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the rescue of Credit Suisse are unlikely to mark the start of a systemic event. However, from an asset allocation perspective, a cautious approach is warranted as the sector remains under intense scrutiny.

Global CIO Andrew McCaffery and our local experts deep dive into the major big picture issues currently impacting the investment landscape in China. They outline how this translates into our views across asset classes and discuss how China re-opening after COVID is likely to affect markets.

Last year was terrible for equities. A war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, higher interest rates and weak economic growth all weighed on sentiment. Globally, both small and large caps were firmly in negative territory. Large-cap indices like the S&P 500 were dragged down as technology companies (such as Meta and Tesla) and stocks with high valuations sold off. Meanwhile, risk-averse investors shunned small caps as economic conditions deteriorated.

As this economic cycle ends, we shouldn’t expect to see the patterns of the past decade repeated. A new regime in policy and market behaviour is unfolding which investors need to understand if they are to find the best opportunities and safeguard their portfolios.

Global CIO Andrew McCaffery believes the key risk for investors to watch in 2023 is a central bank-induced sharp recession, or inflation bust. He shares his outlook for the global economy and outlines how investors should think about approaching asset allocation in the year ahead.