I promised to be a bit more upbeat this week – but it is difficult. The movements in markets in the last few days reflect the volatility/uncertainty that a crisis creates. But we have to remember that in the first instance this is a human tragedy.
The Whig interpretation of history implicitly underpins a lot of Western thought. It sees political and societal development through the lens of liberal democracy with secular trends of technological advancement, greater political representation, freer speech, and all-round progress. I believe that this has been a good thing and reflects the maturing of societies – albeit at different paces.
The recovery and inflation trades were the dominant themes of 2021 – a tough environment for global government bonds which provided negative absolute returns for the year, as yields trended upwards from low levels. However, with inflation expectations growing and nominal yields on the rise, real yields reached all-time lows. This saw global index-linked government bond funds perform very strongly and significantly outperform traditional government bonds last year.
We’ve been very positive on global high yield since central banks stepped in so promptly to support markets on an unprecedented scale following the initial impact of Covid-19 in March 2020. It was hard to be anything else, particularly once the Federal Reserve (Fed) committed to buying corporate bonds as well as government debt, and that position has served our clients well over most of the period since then.
Last year, sterling investment grade credit spreads hit their lowest levels since 2007. With a quantitative easing (QE) programme in place that included the purchase of corporate bonds, and with fiscal programmes including the furlough scheme and bounce-back loans, corporates garnered extremely strong support from policy makers, quelling the likelihood of default.
Two years have passed since Covid-19 emerged on the world scene. The appearance of the more transmissible Omicron variant reminds us that the pandemic is, sadly, not over. High vaccination rates make a return to a deep and prolonged lockdown unlikely, though, and global activity measures have made the round trip back to their pre-pandemic levels. What’s different are policy settings and inflation dynamics. Our base case is that loose policy keeps global growth strong in 2022, while inflation drops from its highs as supply chain disruption eases
While retaining a very positive longer-term view on sustainable investing, we expected 2021 to be a challenging year – as presaged by the performance of our sustainable funds during November 2020 as the ‘Covid-19 reopening’ trade played out. However, as of early December, the funds have had a strong 2021, although this masks periods of strong out and underperformance, rather than a consistent trend.
Richard Marwood, Senior Fund Manager at Royal London Asset Management, discusses the prospects for UK equities in 2022, reflects on an eventful 2021 and shares his longer-term views on dividends.
Peter Rutter, Head of Equities at Royal London Asset Management, discusses his market views for the year ahead, what themes we can expect to emerge and assesses the market performance of 2021.
It is said that happiness is a consequence of expectations versus outcomes. Anyone expecting to live a life without setbacks, unexpected events and challenges, relative to the outcome, is likely to be disappointed.
Do we get the leaders we deserve? In many ways we do – as people who rise to the top have a habit of reflecting the mood at that point in time.
My inbox was full of emails last week from strategists pushing up their US treasury yield forecasts for 2022 and 2023. I guess that is not surprising given the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, which showed US inflation at 7%, and a more hawkish message from the US Federal Reserve.
In time honoured tradition I thought I would have a quick look back at key themes of 2021 and set out some thoughts for 2022.
I was up early on Saturday morning to play real tennis – I game I really love. For those not familiar it is a strange mixture of lawn tennis and squash, played on an indoor court with a kink in one of the walls. Although similar to lawn tennis’s point scoring system, players only serve from one end of the court and points are not automatically lost if you can’t return the ball from the serving end.
November proved to be a tricky month for credit markets. The cause was concern about Covid mutations and the potential impact on economic activity. If we look at the sterling investment grade credit market there are several striking features over the month.
I had my third (booster) jab this week – which was timely given the news about a new Covid variant. This impacted financial markets pretty severely on Friday. In the UK 50-year rates dropped towards 0.75%, close to the year lows. In the US 30-year rates closed in on 1.8% and German long-dated bonds flirted with zero rates.
As a Northerner who has lived most of my life in the South, I am amazed at the shift in political allegiances I have seen in recent years. My wife comes from Hartlepool, a place I have visited often.
What will the world look like in 2100? It sounds an awfully long way away – but then again, our credit portfolios hold bonds that mature after that date. I ask the question in light of COP26 and the challenges societies face in limiting temperature rises over the long term.
After a miserable 2020 in which dividends declined by 44% to £61.9bn, the lowest annual total since 2011, pay-outs have bounced back strongly. Many companies have reinstated and increased their dividend distributions, or paid special dividends.
Are you a journalist or a fund manager?
One of our favourite investment adages is that if you want to be a successful journalist, be a pessimist; if you want to be a successful investor, be an optimist. For anyone wondering why the balance between happy and sad news is so in favour of the latter, the former doesn’t sell.