Royal London Asset Management

Events in Israel and Gaza continued to dominated news flow last week. We live in an information age where horrors are immediately transmitted around the world. But at the same time the manipulation of what we see becomes more sophisticated – so we become unsure of reality.

The UK political scene is changing. At a simple level this is shown in opinion polls which indicate a large lead for the Labour Party. It could also be seen in the confidence of electoral success evident at the conferences of the two leading parties.

The distressing events in Israel over the weekend will unsettle markets, with implications for the oil price, US treasury yields and currencies.

As we head into the final quarter of 2023, macro headlines have begun to dominate the market narrative again. Oil prices have risen more than 30% since June and bond yields have risen. This is reigniting the concerns which dominated 2022, of higher energy prices and interest rates impacting economic activity and creating higher inflation.

Bond markets stole the headlines last week. A year on from the Liability-Driven Investment crisis, 30-year UK yields are back to where they were in early October 2022, nudging 5%.

Last week saw a flurry of announcements with relevance to fixed income markets. On Wednesday, UK inflation data surprised on the downside – breaking a disappointing recent sequence.

Historians generally disparage ‘what if’ narratives – but it makes fun reading and, more importantly, challenges accepted wisdom.

Several of my journal updates in recent months have referenced the slow recovery of the UK economy, pointing out that real output was hovering around the 2019 level. This has now proved to be inaccurate.

One of the great skills of the best forecasters is to explain the past and make market moves sound perfectly logical and predictable. I say this tongue in cheek because I have been mulling the causes of the recent rise in US treasury yields. Last week, I read a flurry of notes explaining why global bond yields have gone up.

Booming Britain? Well not quite, but a pleasant surprise nonetheless. UK GDP expanded 0.5% in the month of June, well above consensus expectations. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed the expansion to a recovery in activity following May's extra bank holiday.

For people who know us well, the observation that ‘credit ratings don’t tell you everything’ will come as no surprise. We certainly value the input provided by rating agencies but there is something missing.

The Royal London Asset Management Sustainable investing roadshow, will run from 30 August to 4 October 2023.

There is a small gallery on the Wirral that houses one of my favourite pictures. Painted in the mid 19th century by William Holman Hunt, a leading Pre-Raphaelite artist, it depicts ‘The Scapegoat’, an animal that carries away human sins.

Last week saw three UK by-elections in constituencies previously held by the Conservatives. Two seats were won by opposition parties, following large swings; the other was retained, against most predictions. What can be read into these results?

Hubris: it is a strange word that conveys over-confidence. In last week’s journal I talked about Aviva and its 16% fee for a consent solicitation it was seeking on one of its bonds – a great result for us. News from Thames Water was the opposite.

Events in Russia dominated headlines over the weekend. As yet it is unclear what will happen and markets have remained calm.

Central bankers sprung no surprises last week. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged, maintaining their 5-5.25% range. The consensus amongst economists is that this is a skip rather than a halt.

Last week was a waiting week. The focus was on the US Federal Reserve and whether we are about to see a pause in the rate hike cycle. We will soon know.