Janus Henderson

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, gauges the potential for a sustained cross-asset recovery as the world adapts to a new paradigm, one where COVID-19 remains a persistent risk factor for investors.

Global inflation is expected here to pick up significantly over the next 2-3 years. This would be consistent with the Kondratyev “long wave” price / inflation cycle, which implies a multi-year rise to a peak in the late 2020s, as well as current monetary trends – G7 annual broad money growth may have reached 16% in May, which would be the fastest since 1973.

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, gives his thoughts on the dramatic gains across markets over the past few weeks, and considers the factors he believes need to be in place to sustain the ‘V’-shaped rally.

Oliver Blackbourn, Portfolio Manager on the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, responds to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) dovish view on prospects for the UK economy, although risks remain skewed to the downside.

Jenna Barnard, and Nicholas Ware, members of the Strategic Fixed Income Team, share their views on the recent bout of market activity, with large companies accessing the capital markets and the stream of dividend cut announcements in Europe.

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, reviews a seismic first quarter for investment markets worldwide. He discusses the impact of the coronavirus pandemic across asset classes and covers the positive and negative indicators that are guiding his views on market prospects for the remainder of 2020.

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, discusses the purge of risk appetite across the investment world as the coronavirus spreads, considering the range of potential government measures, and the quiet progress being made on containment.

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, discusses the recent market shock as oil prices tumble and the Coronavirus continues to impact countries globally.

A post a month ago argued that global monetary developments in early 2020 would be key for assessing economic prospects.

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, considers the potential impact on global economic growth as concerns grow about the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus beyond China.

Ainslie McLennan, Co-Manager of the Janus Henderson UK Property PAIF, explains why the UK commercial property investment team feel vindicated in moving early to diversify the portfolio away from traditional areas of the retail market.

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, considers the potential impact of the Wuhan Novel Coronavirus from an asset allocation perspective. 

Chinese recovery hopes were boosted by a rise in the Markit manufacturing PMI to a 35-month high in November. A post here in December linked the PMI pick-up to stronger real narrow money growth in early 2019. With money trends deteriorating from Q2, the suggestion was that the PMI would show renewed weakness in early 2020.

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK Multi-Asset Team, considers whether or not markets can continue to defy gravity in 2020, as we move into a post-stimulus era.
 

The modest revival in the global manufacturing PMI in late 2019, on the view here, partly reflects a bottoming out of the global stockbuilding (inventory) cycle.

The baseline scenario in our previous quarterly commentary was that global economic momentum, having bottomed in Q3 2019, would remain weak in early 2020 before strengthening towards mid-year.

The forecast here a year ago was that the MPC would cut Bank rate to 0.5% during 2019.

Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK Multi-Asset Team, gives his reaction to the UK election result and what it means for the Brexit process.