Oliver Blackbourn, a portfolio manager on the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, comments on the departure of Mario Draghi as ECB President on 31 October 2019, as the central bank itself potentially reaches the limits of what can be achieved using the levers of monetary policy.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, comments on the market reaction to the last minute plot twist emerging from the Brexit negotiations.
Euroland September flash PMI results were disappointing but monetary trends continue to give a hopeful signal for economic prospects.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, discusses the continuing trade war between China and the US, possible trade conflicts among other countries and how this has shaped his global outlook.
Oliver Blackbourn, a portfolio manager on the UK-based Multi-Asset team, discusses the abrupt escalation in hostilities between the UK Parliament and a bellicose Prime Minister.
UK labour market trends remain consistent with the view here that the economy has entered a recession.
Equity analysts returned from holiday and slashed earnings estimates.
August PMI results are consistent with the long-standing expectation here that global industrial momentum would bottom around Q3 2019 but narrow money trends have yet to signal an economic recovery. Turning points in industrial momentum are usually associated with a rotation in financial markets but the still-weak economic outlook suggests that any such change will be muted or delayed.
Nick Watson, a Fund Manager on the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, observes the hidden risks and relationships lurking in quality investment styles and the potential benefits of adding some complementary (but unloved) value styles to a UK portfolio.
Narrow money trends have been signalling US economic weakness but a stabilisation of momentum in Euroland, with no recession – see, for example, here. August flash PMI results are consistent with this scenario.
The preferred narrative of central bankers and mainstream economists is that current global economic weakness primarily reflects US-driven trade policy conflict, which has depressed business confidence and derailed expansion plans. This narrative is false.
Euroland money measures grew strongly in July, more than compensating for softer June data and suggesting improving economic prospects.
Oliver Blackbourn, a portfolio manager on the UK-based Multi-Asset team, discusses the abrupt escalation in hostilities between the UK Parliament and a bellicose Prime Minister.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, discusses the continuing trade war between China and the US, possible trade conflicts among other countries and how this has shaped his global outlook.
Paul O'Connor, Head of the UK based Multi-Asset Team, examines the market's response to the Fed's first rate cut in over 10 years.
Paul O'Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset team, discusses confirmation of Boris Johnson's appointment as UK Prime Minister and the highly uncertain outlook for Brexit that he, and his divided government, must navigate, and the likely market response.
Jenna Barnard, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explores the options for meaningful policy easing by developed market central banks in the face of the current downturn in global activity.
Paul O'Connor, Head of the UK-based Janus Henderson Multi-Asset Team, examines the outlook for multi-asset investors in Q3 in the latest issue of Multi-Asset Perspectives, our quarterly outlook for multi-asset investors.
James de Bunsen, Portfolio Manager on Janus Henderson’s UK-based Multi-Asset team, discusses the solid attractions of infrastructure investment.
John Pattullo, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains how after the failure of QE to generate any sustainable growth or inflation the dial has turned to various forms of fiscal policy. But as he argues, a successful formula has to combine fiscal and monetary policies with structural reform.