The stabilisation of US economic growth amid unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus has raised questions about the likelihood of inflation returning. Jim Cielinski, Global Head of Fixed Income, and Andrew Mulliner, Head of Global Aggregate Strategies, both members of the Fixed Income Investment Strategy Group (ISG), explain why they do not see significant risks of sustained higher inflation materialising in the next few years, though caution that short-term spikes are possible and investors should evaluate the diversity that their fixed income portfolios provide.
This year’s surge in global broad money is expected here to result in a significant inflation pick-up in 2021-22. The timing, magnitude and sustainability of this rise, however, are uncertain, the latter depending importantly on the extent to which broad money trends normalise over coming quarters.
In a tightly contested US election, where the issue of postal votes could decide the victor, what does this mean for financial markets? Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, looks ahead to prospective policy paths and the dwindling prospects of a Biden fiscal bonanza.
Director of Research Matt Peron says when it comes to the US election, the biggest risk for equity markets is not which party gets voted into office but whether the outcome is contested. So far, equities expect a clear winner on or near Election Day.
Hamish Chamberlayne, Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Sustainable Equities, highlights key sustainable news stories for the third quarter of 2020 and breaks down strategy performance.
What visibility is there for investors right now? Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, looks ahead to the fourth quarter of 2020 and beyond, summarising his latest thoughts on COVID-19, Brexit and the upcoming US election.
In this episode, Global Sustainable Equity portfolio managers Hamish Chamberlayne and Aaron Scully join Adam Hetts to decode sustainability and discuss their approach to sustainable investing.
The central view here remains that the global economy is staging a V-shaped recovery – or an italic V, at least – from the covid shock (not recession), with industrial output / GDP likely to regain pre-crisis levels in late 2020 / early 2021.
Nicholas Ware, Portfolio Manager in the Strategic Fixed Income Team, explains why he believes the second half of 2020 will see lower net issuance in corporate bond markets following the dizzying volume of new bond issues in the first half.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, responds to the European Union’s landmark coronavirus recovery package, agreed after four days and four nights of negotiations.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, gauges the potential for a sustained cross-asset recovery as the world adapts to a new paradigm, one where COVID-19 remains a persistent risk factor for investors.
Global inflation is expected here to pick up significantly over the next 2-3 years. This would be consistent with the Kondratyev “long wave” price / inflation cycle, which implies a multi-year rise to a peak in the late 2020s, as well as current monetary trends – G7 annual broad money growth may have reached 16% in May, which would be the fastest since 1973.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, gives his thoughts on the dramatic gains across markets over the past few weeks, and considers the factors he believes need to be in place to sustain the ‘V’-shaped rally.
Oliver Blackbourn, Portfolio Manager on the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, responds to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) dovish view on prospects for the UK economy, although risks remain skewed to the downside.
Jenna Barnard, and Nicholas Ware, members of the Strategic Fixed Income Team, share their views on the recent bout of market activity, with large companies accessing the capital markets and the stream of dividend cut announcements in Europe.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, reviews a seismic first quarter for investment markets worldwide. He discusses the impact of the coronavirus pandemic across asset classes and covers the positive and negative indicators that are guiding his views on market prospects for the remainder of 2020.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, discusses the purge of risk appetite across the investment world as the coronavirus spreads, considering the range of potential government measures, and the quiet progress being made on containment.
Paul O’Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, discusses the recent market shock as oil prices tumble and the Coronavirus continues to impact countries globally.
A post a month ago argued that global monetary developments in early 2020 would be key for assessing economic prospects.