Euroland first-quarter GDP details released today support the view here that the Kitchin inventory cycle downswing is further advanced than in other regions – a positive for relative economic prospects.
Paul O'Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, on dead ends, game changers and the difficult choices faced by the incoming Conservative prime minister.
The PBoC today released detailed monetary data for April, allowing calculation of true M1, the preferred narrow money measure here. Six-month growth of the aggregate, seasonally adjusted, rose to a 14-month high but remains low by historical standards – see first chart. Allowing for the usual lead, the suggestion is that two-quarter nominal GDP expansion will stabilise at a weak level in the second / third quarters and recover modestly towards year-end.
Global six-month real narrow money growth appears to have recovered partially in April after a March relapse but remains weak by post-GFC standards – a much bigger pick-up is needed to signal an economic recovery, which, in any case, is unlikely before early 2020 at the earliest.
Jenna Barnard, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, confesses to not all birthday gifts being a delight to receive but a book from 1892, found by chance in a second-hand book dealer, turned out to be a rare birthday gem. Its lesson on investing are not only instructive but shine a light on the predicament facing bond investors today.
Nick Watson, fund manager on the UK-based Janus Henderson Multi-Asset Team, argues that understanding a company's environmental, social and governance risks can be vital in enhancing clients' long term returns.
Jenna Barnard, Co-Head of Strategic Fixed Income, explains how and why so many major central banks have been wrong-footed on economic growth in their countries and around the globe.
Paul O'Connor, Head of Janus Henderson's UK-based Multi-Asset Team, discusses the ongoing impasse within Parliament as MPs unsuccessfully attempt to narrow down approaches to Brexit.
Sixteen different potential approaches to Brexit were presented to British MPs this week, eight were voted on yesterday - none received majority support. The Brexit process remains gridlocked.
The view here is that the MPC should have cut Bank rate at its meeting last week.
Nick Watson, fund manager for the UK-based multi-asset team, concludes his ‘match report’ for the performance of Janus Henderson’s Multi-Asset Core Income range in 2018.
Nick Watson, fund manager for the UK-based multi-asset team, provides his ‘match report’ for Janus Henderson’s Multi-Asset Core Income range in 2018. In this article, he looks at the divergent market forces that drove performance.
Oliver Blackbourn, Portfolio Manager on the UK-based Multi-Asset Team, discusses the implications of the US Federal Reserve’s new dovish stance and questions whether patience is always the best approach.
Paul O’Connor, Head of Janus Henderson’s UK-based Multi-Asset Team, assesses how sometimes going backwards takes you further forward, as Prime Minister Theresa May secures a rare victory in parliament.